Article published on Le Cercle Les Echos
“Coal-fired power generation is expected to reach a record high in 2021.” This observation is made in the recent 'Coal 2021' report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) which forecasts a 9% increase in coal-fired electricity production in 2021 compared to 2020. Worse, the IEA forecasts that global consumption could return to its record level of 2013-2014 in 2022 and only start to decline after 2024. A few months after the release of the sixth assessment report of the IPCC and the COP26 in Glasgow, this resurgence in the use of coal is anything but good news for the climate.
An energy source that allowed the rise of our industrial society in the 19th century, coal is still at the heart of our energy system. Indeed, coal represents 25% of our primary energy and 37% of the world's electricity. While France is in the process of shutting down these last coal-fired power plants, some developed countries are still very dependent on this resource. In fact, in 2020, this represents: 19% of electricity in the United States, 23% in Germany, and 29% in japan.
What is coal?
Coal is a sedimentary rock with a high carbon content formed by the decomposition of biomass under the effect of high temperatures and pressures. There are various types classified according to their carbon content, energy density or humidity level. One can thus distinguish, among others, anthracite, which is very rich in carbon, coal, and lignite. The latter, with a fairly low energy density (barely higher than that of dry wood) is widely used in Germany.
Coal was already used in China 2000 years ago. It was used for 'industrial' applications in Belgium as early as the 12th century. It was in England that its use really took off; 10 million tons were already used there in 1750. Coal has made it possible to circumvent the limit posed by strong deforestation due to the development of the steel industry on the one hand — an activity that consumes a lot of charcoal, and on the other hand by the demand for construction wood. It also marks a pivot of a flow economy, limited by the speed of tree growth, to a stock economy based on the extraction of this material accumulated over millions of years.
Demand is still on the rise
In 2020, global production was almost 8 billion tons - on average more than one ton per person. China produces almost 50% of the world total, the second largest producer is India with around 800 million tons, 5 times less than China. It is used mainly for the production of electricity (66%) and for the production of steel (12%).
Coal represented around 47% of the world's primary energy in 1900, with biomass accounting for 50%. While this share declined during the 20th century, coal production increased by 6 times over the century. The share of coal even increased at the beginning of the 21st century under the influence of China, whose production tripled between 2000 and 2019, driven by very strong economic growth. Between 2008 and 2016, China installed between 40 and 60 gigawatts of coal-fired production capacity each year, the equivalent of the French nuclear fleet. However, it is the energy source that emits the most CO2 (per unit of power produced) and the one that causes the most deaths.
Turning your back on coal, and more generally, fossil fuels, is an imperative to reduce CO2 emissions. In its roadmap to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 published in early 2021, the IEA is counting on the closure of coal-fired power plants by 2040. Above all, the IEA recalls that any new investment in a coal-fired power plant is against the objectives of reducing emissions. Many countries such as the USA or the Chinese are committed to no longer financing coal-fired power plants abroad. In total, there are around 2000GW of coal-fired power installed in the world and around 500GW under construction or planned. The pace of construction is tending to decrease.
Unfortunately, the sharp rise in gas prices, and energy in general, has led some countries (England for example) to reopen former coal-fired power plants, with production in China reaching record levels at the end of 2021. In view of the reservations very abundant, you should not count on their exhaustion to limit production. Unless there are much more proactive policies, it is therefore to be feared that coal will still be with us for many years to come. Recall that the commitments made by the various countries are in no way compatible with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. In particular, a recent study showed that 90% of reserves of coal had to remain untapped to have a chance of staying under 1.5 degrees of warming. It will therefore be necessary to be more demanding for coal to really become, and finally, an energy of the past.