In 2019, commercial aviation emitted more than one billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere (i.e. 2.8% of global CO2 emissions) and its contribution to global warming is estimated at 4%, considering non-CO2 effects (condensation trails, other GHGs, etc.). Despite a sharp drop in traffic during the COVID pandemic, it quickly picked up again (2019 levels should be reached by the end of the year) and industry players are already forecasting a 2 to 3.5 times increase in passenger and cargo traffic in 2050, mainly due to increasing access to aviation in developing countries.
Although the sector has seen rapid technological progress since its inception, especially in reducing fuel consumption, these will not be enough to achieve carbon neutrality, or even counter the increase in emissions caused by a potential increase in traffic. As the ICAO is committed to ensuring that the sector respects the Paris Agreements and therefore to achieving carbon neutrality in 2050, it will be necessary to activate all the levers available to reduce its impact on the climate.
Among the solutions, sustainable fuels, or SAF in English, are presented as the keystone of the sector's decarbonization strategy. But do they really have the potential that we attribute to them?