Article originally published on La Tribune
When we think of industry, we often have the image of activities that consume a lot of energy and emit CO2. However, the reindustrialization of a country like France, which already has low-carbon electricity, is a powerful lever for reducing the carbon footprint. Climate policies must therefore be thought of in a much broader perspective than just the energy vision. By Anais Voy-Gillis, associate researcher at the University of Haute-Alsace and Greg De Temmerman, managing director of the think tank Zenon Research and associate researcher at Mines ParisTech-PSL.
COP26 and its long preparation saw many countries show strengthened ambitions in the fight against climate change by reducing greenhouse gases and achieving carbon neutrality. 80% of the global economy is therefore now formally involved in this trajectory, although the public policies of these countries are still insufficient to comply with the Paris Agreement. At the same time, the current energy crisis, marked by the surge in commodity prices with an impact on the entire economy, reminds us that our strong dependence on fossil fuels (65% of final energy in France) is complicating the path of energy transition in our economies and societies.
In France, the recent publication by RTE, public electricity network operator, of the prospective study “Energy Futures 2050" proposes energy scenarios compatible with the achievement of carbon neutrality in 2050. 6 scenarios are thus detailed, ranging from a park composed of 100% renewable energies to a mixed fleet with 50% nuclear energy. Highly anticipated for public authorities' decisions on the construction of new EPR nuclear reactors, this report also addresses a relatively neglected — and counterintuitive — dimension in squaring the circle of energy transition: the beneficial role of France's reindustrialization in reducing its carbon footprint.
The carbon footprint consists of direct emissions on French territory, production of goods intended for domestic consumption and direct emissions from households, as well as emissions associated with imported goods and services. In 2016, the carbon footprint was around 660 million tons of CO2eq [1] while all territorial emissions amounted to nearly 440 million tons. While national emissions fell by 25% between 2000 and 2019, due in particular to a new wave of deindustrialization in France, the share linked to imports remained relatively stable over the same period. This dependence on imports is also reflected in energy consumption. INSEE thus estimates that three quarters of the final energy consumed by households comes from the grey energy needed to produce imported and consumed goods.
This large share of imports in the carbon footprint makes the achievement of neutrality in France dependent on emission trajectories in other countries that export to our country. China plans to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Even if the French energy mix is still mostly carbon-based, French electricity has one of the lowest carbon intensity in the world, giving it a competitive advantage for any production dependent on electricity. RTE thus estimates that if all imported manufactured goods were produced in France, the carbon footprint would decrease by 75 million tons of CO2eq. Taking the example of textiles, 1 kg of textile produced in France has a carbon footprint that is 2 times lower than if it were produced in China. Relocating 25% of the production of textiles purchased in France would reduce the carbon footprint by 3.5 million tons of CO2eq per year.
In practice, the effect of relocations depends on their magnitude, the trajectories followed by other countries, the import-export balance and the effectiveness of energy decarbonization in France. RTE also believes that strong reindustrialization would make it possible, by 2050, to avoid the emission of 900 million tons of CO2 compared to a trend scenario without major changes in the industrial structure. This increase in industrial production in France is based on the achievements of an electrical mix. ever decarbonized. In its strong reindustrialization scenario, RTE forecasts an increase in electricity demand of between 8 and 16% compared to the base scenario. The latter already forecasts a 35% increase in electricity consumption by 2050.
Moreover, the subject of reindustrialization is not limited to the relocation of assembly stages, but is accompanied by a more global reflection on the upstream stages such as the extraction and refining of certain raw materials, but also downstream with the distribution of products and their recycling. However, very often this carbon footprint variable at all stages of the production chain is poorly integrated into the decarbonization approach, because it implies having a more global reflection on the strategy of companies, their supply logic and the choice of materials, the design of the product and the management of its end of life. In other words, the decarbonization of our economy calls for a reflection both on the entire value chain of a finished product, but also on its life cycle.
To do so, reindustrialization must be thought of according to the logic of territorial productive ecosystems, the only way to recreate real short circuits. However, many industrial sectors rely on global procurement strategies, in particular because of a search for the lowest price, often at the expense of social and environmental aspects. There are many companies in France capable of responding to various requests, including in electronics, but they still need to be known by their peers. Public actors certainly have a role to play in the valorization of companies in their territories that can meet the decarbonization requirements of other manufacturers.
Finally, the logic of reindustrialization must absolutely not be thought of only through the prism of the decarbonization of the economy, but integrate a broader vision such as the impact of industrial choices on biodiversity, insofar as the increase in industrial production carried out in France will have an impact on environments and ecosystems. The overconsumption of manufactured products is also incompatible with our environmental objectives, so that the economic model of companies based on the principle of massification of production to lower unit costs of production is called into question by an imperative of sobriety in consumption. The management of waste and recycling must also be posed both in a logic of seeking sovereignty, but also of tension over certain critical raw materials.
Finally, it is imperative to pay attention to the ease of certain speeches on carbon neutrality [2]. Carbon neutrality does not exist at the level of a company, so when a company says to be “neutral” it means that it offsets its emissions, but not necessarily that it reduces them. The challenge is therefore a sustainable and drastic reduction in emissions. This clarification is necessary, at least for the consumer who could be misled by “greenwashing” strategies. Thus, to contribute to the reduction of emissions, companies have two actions: to give themselves the means to reduce their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and relocation is one of the relevant hypotheses for this, but also to think about ways to increase carbon sinks in their sites or on the value chain to contribute to the overall effort to reduce net emissions.
It would be tempting to blame industry as an obstacle to the goals of the Paris Agreements when it is part of the environmental solution. The reduction of emissions must therefore be considered in a broad field and within the framework of a real climate and industrial strategy with short, medium and long term objectives. For example, the latter will have a strong and significant impact on energy consumption. However, deploying electrical production means takes time; this inertia requires a clear and ambitious road map.
[1] CO₂ equivalent.
[2] The IPCC defines it as a balance between CO2 emissions and removals on a global scale.